U.S. opinion polls have started showing Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in a slim lead over Republican candidate Donald Trump, including in some important swing states.
Her rise leads some to wonder what the impact will be of a Harris presidency on its closest ally and largest trading partner: Canada.
A CBS/YouGov poll taken between Aug. 14 and Aug. 16 had Harris leading Trump with 51 per cent of likely voters, compared with 48 per cent. A Washington Post/ ABC News / Ipsos poll found Harris leading Trump with 47 per cent of voters, compared with 44 per cent in a match-up that included third-party candidates. That was within the poll's margin of error.
Harris’ slim lead has materialized before this week’s Democratic national convention kicks off tonight. That extravaganza is likely to provide her with a slight bump in polls as it will provide Americans with plenty of speeches touting Harris’ abilities. U.S. President Joe Biden is set to address the convention tonight, while former president Barack Obama is slated to give a speech tomorrow night and former president Bill Clinton plans to address the convention on Wednesday night. Harris' speech would then be on Thursday night.
The excitement in Harris’ campaign follows Biden’s decision not to seek a second term and could well propel her to victory.
Political scientists and economists told BIV that they view both Harris and Trump as having protectionist tendencies.
The economic plan that Harris released last week, however, shows that she plans to be less protectionist than Trump.
In a speech she gave on Friday, she suggested Trump was allied with billionaires and corporate executives and would make the cost of living pricier for everyday Americans.
She targeted Trump’s plan to impose drastic tariffs on imported goods.
Harris said at a Friday campaign event that those tariffs “will mean higher prices on just about every one of your daily needs.”
She then equated tariffs with taxes: “A Trump tax on gas, a Trump tax on food, a Trump tax on clothing, a Trump tax on over-the-counter medication.”
Hearing disparaging language about tariffs is good news for Canada.
Trump’s promised 10-per-cent tariff on Canadian exports to the U.S. would subtract $7 billion from Canadian GDP annually, representing a 0.3-per-cent decline from the status quo, according to a recent BDC report.
“This drop in economic activity would translate into the loss of around 20,000 jobs in Canada,” the report said.
Central 1 economist Bryan Yu told BIV that he views Harris' stance on tariffs as essentially favouring the status quo.
He said the U.S. has protectionist policies that he does not expect to disappear. The difference between Harris and Trump is that Trump would add new tariffs, he added.
Another economic risk for Canada under a Trump presidency is that he could terminate what is known in Canada as the Canada U.S. Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
Canada, the U.S. and Mexico must by July 1, 2026, confirm in writing that they want to continue the agreement. If any of the countries decide not to renew the agreement, the pact’s future will be in danger.
Harris has not mentioned a policy stance on CUSMA so the expectation is that it would remain in place as is.
Impact of U.S. policies on immigration and migration could impact Canada
Trump has promised to ramp up efforts to keep illegal migrants out of the U.S.
The result of that could be that more of those people seek refuge in Canada, said Irene Bloemraad, a professor and co-director of UBC’s Centre for Migration Studies.
A Harris presidency would likely largely be one of the status quo, Bloemraad said.
“My read is that she's certainly going to campaign on being tough on the border, but with a focus, probably more on the criminal aspect – so human trafficking, drug running, gun running, those kind of things," she said.
The Democratic Party released its 2024 polcy platform yesterday, with some ideas to "fix a broken immigration system."
Bloemraad said Harris has engaged a number of Central American countries to see whether there would be ways to help those countries further develop.
‘The way to reduce immigration in the long term from Central America is to help develop those economies,” she said. “I don't see any of that having a particular direct impact on Canada.”
Bloemraad said one possibility is that a Harris administration could work out an agreement with Ottawa to have Canada take some Central American migrants and resettle them.
The arrangement may be part of a larger agreement that involves trade or other matters.
Such an agreement would be less likely under a Trump administration, she said, because Trump may not even want to process asylum seekers.
Harris has strongly urged asylum seekers to go through bureaucratic channels and officially apply to be eligible to enter the U.S. from their own countries.
“Do not come,” she famously told Guatemalan migrants in a 2021 address, adding that doing so would only benefit human smugglers.
“One possibility is that Canada could augment or strengthen its position vis-à-vis a Harris administration by being a source of advice and even maybe a template when it comes to issues around immigration and immigrant settlement,” she said.
“Canada has had an immigrant-settlement sector for decades and has a much more developed program – not just at the federal level, but the provincial and the municipal level, with much more dialogue, contracts and funding across those levels of government.”
Bloemraad said that the fact that Kamala Harris went to high school in Montreal means that she likely has some sympathy, knowledge and respect for Canada.
Yu agreed that Harris may look to Canada for policy templates.
"It looks like there is a bit of the Harris [campaign] taking a page from the Canadian playbook [on] housing affordability," he said. "Harris has proposed up to $25,000 down-payment support for eligible households. My take on any proposal like this is it is inflationary without supply coming to market which could stoke some inflation."
