Canada’s plan to reduce planet warming emissions is “overoptimistic” and is moving “too slowly” to meet its targets, the country’s environment commissioner has warned in a new report.
Of the 20 carbon reduction measures audited by Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development Jerry DeMarco, only nine were found to be on track. Another nine faced challenges, while two faced “significant barriers.”
The report comes with only six years left to meet federal targets aimed at reducing carbon pollution 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.
Yet by 2022, Canada had only dropped emissions by 7.1 per cent — far off track its interim objective to reduce emissions 20 per cent below 2005 levels by 2026. The audit warned “time is running out” for the federal government to achieve the bulk of its emissions reductions.
Despite the grim numbers and “painfully slow” progress, DeMarco — who serves under the Office of the Auditor General of Canada — noted there are still six years left before the 2030 deadline.
“It’s not time to give up,” DeMarco told reporters at a press conference Thursday.
“We owe it to our children and grandchildren to make as great an effort as possible to meet these global challenges — and that includes Canada’s 2030 target.”
Uncounted forestry emissions leave 'gaping hole' in climate plan
The audited emissions plan did not include emissions from land-use change and forestry.
A March 2023 audit from the commissioner found the federal government had failed to properly account for emissions from the country’s forestry sector. Among several recommendations, DeMarco said the federal government “did not provide a clear and complete picture” of greenhouse gases from forestry and called for an independent expert review to assess any gaps.
The latest audit called out two ministries — Natural Resources Canada and Environment and Climate Change Canada — for failing to follow through on those recommendations and still not properly reporting logging emissions.
Michael Polanyi, a policy and campaign manager for Nature Canada, said the commissioner’s criticisms line up with research his group has commissioned. By not counting emissions from wildfires, but allowing the forestry industry to take credit from tree regrowth after, Canada is masking emissions from logging and leaving a “gaping hole in its climate plan,” he said.
In September, Nature Canada released a report that concluded net logging emissions hit 147 megatonnes in 2022. That would make the industry the third-highest emitting sector of the Canadian economy, with only the oil and gas sector’s 217 megatonnes and transport sector’s 156 megatonnes reaching larger totals.
“Canada has still not fixed a fundamental imbalance,” Polanyi said.
If the government properly counted forestry emissions, absolute emissions would go up all the way back to 2005. But declines since then, according to Polanyi, also mean Ottawa would inch closer to its 2030 targets.
Some success and a lot of fixes
Some of the measures taken by the federal government have had some success, the audit found. DeMarco pointed to funding for zero-emission vehicles, oil and gas methane regulations, and investment for public transit.
Some programs saw so much success, they closed earlier than expected after programs saw their funding used up. The federal Canada Greener Homes Grant, for example, received a high number of applicants, so that by 2024, it was fully committed before its expected end date of 2027.
The audit recommended the federal government increase reliability of its carbon pollution reduction estimates and establish a government-wide approach to assess the “value for money” that each measure provided.
It also called on Ottawa to collect and report disaggregated data that tracks access and delivery of emission reduction measures.
“It’s still possible. But now the task is much harder because there’s only six years left,” DeMarco said.
