The Delta school district is going to face some tough times due to a much steeper drop in student enrollment over the next couple of years.
Deputy superintendent Garnet Ayres offered that grim forecast when asked about student popu-lation projections at the Delta school board meeting Tuesday.
"We're in for some serious declines," he said. "We've been fortunate they've been gradual over the last couple of years, but we're in for some rougher times."
Noting district initiatives such as new academies have helped ease the ongoing decline recently, Ayres said more significant drops appear inevitable in the next couple of years that can't be dampened. The enrollment should eventually flatten and then gradually start rebounding in about seven years, he explained.
"If that happens, it won't be anything like the levels we had before," he told the Optimist following the meeting.
The school board was provided the latest enrollment numbers for the 2011/12, which has seen the district lose over 100 students to stand at 15,558.
Meanwhile, enrollment has increased significantly in two areas of special programs that require more time and resources - special education and ESL.
Like most school district's in B.C., Delta, which had an all-time high of 18,763 students in 1980, has been suffering from a declining trend over the past number of years.
According to a consultant's findings for the school board four years ago, Delta's enrollment is projected to decline to 14,500 students by 2016, after which time it could level out. Ministry of Education projections done this year are even more dire, pegging Delta's enrollment at just 13,332 by 2016.
Whatever the drop, it will undoubtedly have huge implications on the school board's budget, which is funded by Victoria on a per pupil basis.
This past spring trustees adopted a budget that had a several reductions to help make up a $3.49 million shortfall.
At the time, trustee Simon Truelove, noting about $11 million had been cut in three years, said the board has managed to maintain a high level of success, but now some students will feel the effects.
Chairman Dale Saip described the cupboard as "bare" as far as being able to make further reductions.
The previous year was a tougher one for the board, which decided to close Delta Manor and Boundary Beach elementary schools.
Special programs and educational assistants were also reduced as part of that series of budget reductions.
The Ministry of Education announced this year that school districts would receive $4.7 billion in operating funding in 2011/12, an increase of $58 million over current funding levels. That works out to an average of $44 more per pupil.
Delta Teachers' Association president Paul Steer and the B.C. Teachers Federation were quick to note that while dollar amounts have gone up, they have not kept pace with the increases in inflation and the costs downloaded to school districts.
Meanwhile, some hope may be on the horizon, according to Delta trustee Laura Dixon, who's participating in a B.C. School Trustees Association effort to have the provincial government re-examine the current formulas and funding model. Dixon said the association has an agreement with the Ministry of Education to work on several issues.
"The education minister, up to this point, has not said that he's willing to re-examine the funding formula. So the fact that he's agreed to work with the BCSTA, this could be the moment we get our toe in the door finally," she said.
