There isn’t a lot of difference when it comes to Metro Vancouver’s various scenarios for population growth in the City of Delta.
The regional district recently prepared population estimates up to 2050 for its member jurisdictions using three projection scenarios: medium growth, high growth and low growth.
A report to the Regional Planning Committee notes that the medium growth scenario is considered as the highest probability, while other scenarios explore alternatives that result from different growth assumptions and variables.
According to the report, Delta’s population projection in the medium growth projection has the population increasing from around its current 113,000 to 127,850 by 2030, 141,780 by 2040, and 154,550 by 2050.
In the high growth scenario, Delta’s population would increase to 128,350 by 2030, to 144,220 by 2040, and to 160,750 by 2050.
In the low growth scenario, Delta’s population would reach 127,290 by 2030, to 138,670 by 2040 and to 146,870 by 2050.
The report states the region is expected to grow by nearly 50,000 net new residents annually, representing a significant increase from the historical average, which has been approximately 35,000 net new residents annually.
As a result, the region is projected to reach four million people by the mid-2040s.
Metro Vancouver updates regional and municipal population projections on a regular basis and those projections have been the main source for estimating future demand for land, housing, jobs and utilities.
The population figures are provided as a collaborative guide for land use and infrastructure planning initiatives among Metro Vancouver’s utilities, member jurisdictions, TransLink and other regional agencies.
The short, medium and long-term projections completed by Regional Planning are essential for water, sewer and transit capital planning programs.
The longer the time period of the projections, the higher the level of uncertainty, the report notes, adding that to overcome issues with dynamic modelling variables and an uncertain future, multiple growth scenarios are prepared by the Regional Planning team.
According to the City of Delta, after a period of slower growth between 2001 and 2016, its population grew by 6,400 people between 2016 and 2021, when the last Census was completed. That represents a six per cent increase between Censuses, which is noticeably higher than the zero-to-three per cent increases experienced previously.
The biggest projected increase will occur in North Delta with an additional 24,000 people by 2051, representing approximately 10,000 new homes. A large proportion of that growth is projected to occur within the Scott Road corridor with approximately 14,000 people.
In total, North Delta’s 2051 population is estimated to be 87,000 people.
