It caused quite a stir in Delta 18 years ago, but questions it raised continue to remain unanswered today.
In 2006, the Sierra Club released a report saying global warming will result in 76 per cent of Delta submerged within 200-to-300 years.
The report warned global warming could result in up to a six-metre increase in the level of the sea, also resulting in 91 per cent of Richmond and 32 per cent of New Westminster under water, as well as facilities such as the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal and the Deltaport container terminal at Roberts Bank.
The calculation was based on an article in the academic journal Science, which published a map outlining an anticipated scenario in Florida.
Fast forward to 2024 and B.C. communities at risk of what is now more commonly referred to as climate change, including Delta, are anxiously waiting for the B.C. government’s draft of the British Columbia Flood Strategy. That report had been delayed, but is to be released this year.
In late 2022, the government released a flood strategy Intentions Paper and gathered feedback from stakeholders including local governments.
The document notes, “Defining a coherent, strategic vision for flood management is needed to turn the corner and increase flood resilience for British Columbians. This strategic vision must clearly define what needs to be achieved, as well as how this could be done over time. It must also build on what the provincial government has already heard at multiple engagement events related to flood management, disaster risk management, and resource stewardship forums.”
The Intentions Paper acknowledges that, due to climate change, river flooding is expected to be at least 10-to-20 per cent more frequent, while local floods from heavy downpours are expected to be 40 per cent more frequent, and that sea level rise of more than one metre is expected by the end of this century.
The report notes that the vast majority of dikes in the province no longer meet provincial standards, with one study estimating only five per cent of all dikes in the entire Lower Mainland meet current standards.
However, while the Intentions Paper describes the need for planning as well as reviewing and modernizing legislation and regulations, it does not go so far as concluding who should foot the bill for the enormous expense.
The document goes on to note that the atmospheric river event of November 2021 demonstrated the significant consequences of flooding, adding that every $1 million in public investment made toward flood resilience during the 2020’s-to-2030’s will save an average of $7-to-$10 million in avoided flood damage and recovery costs in the 2040’s-to-2060’s. Proactive flood resilience investments spread over a number of years would reduce the flood damage costs of a major lower Fraser River flood, previously estimate at over $30 billion, to a fraction of that amount.
A City of Delta report notes that the community currently has $6.5 billion in private property and public infrastructure protected by Delta’s diking infrastructure, while the estimated damage by a major dike breach is anywhere from $1 billion-to-$3 billion, adding about 53 per cent of Delta’s land mass is vulnerable to flooding.
Noting that a lot of analysis and planning has already been undertaken by the Fraser Basin Council, Delta and other communities last year unanimously approved a special resolution at the Union of B.C. Municipalities the provincial government take back responsibility for dikes, as well as increase funding for flood preparedness and mitigation.
The Fraser Basin Council recommends establishing a long-term funding program to support implementation of the Lower Mainland Flood Management Strategy, with senior level government financial support clearly needed.
