With the 12-month countdown now officially underway, the race for the Delta South seat in next spring's provincial election has the capability to be the most contentious in recent memory. And that's saying something given a judicial recount was needed three years ago to determine a winner.
Incumbent Vicki Huntington would have to be considered the favourite at this point, but if it turns out to be a four-way race, I think all candidates could legitimately say they have a decent shot at representing us in Victoria.
Huntington, who made history in 2009 by getting elected as an independent, obviously has a great deal of personal popularity. The vast majority of her support in a losing cause in 2005 was made up of disaffected Liberals, which was also the case last time, although some strategic voting New Democrats were required to push her over the top.
However, what if those NDPers go back to their roots, enticed by their party's strong showing in the polls, and what if disaffected Liberals are given another choice next spring in the form of the Conservatives?
It's not inconceivable to see Huntington bleed support at the polls despite what most would consider a solid first term in the capital.
The Liberals are definitely going to drop from the 42 per cent Wally Oppal garnered three years ago, but in this right-of-centre riding they'll continue to be a factor. The NDP, which is traditionally somewhere in the 20 per cent range, could rebound to that level and then some, buoyed by strong provincial numbers, while the new kids on the block, the Conservatives, could prove appealing for right wing voters with a history of supporting John Cummins (not that the party leader has said he's running here).
I guess what I'm getting at is that it's not inconceivable that all four candidates could end up attracting somewhere between 20 and 30 per cent of the popular vote, making Delta South the Kentucky Derby of election races in B.C., a contest that any one of the quartet could potentially win.
A lot will transpire between now and May 14 of next year, including both the Liberals and Conservatives naming candidates locally, to say nothing of the political ebb and flow that will take place at the provincial level. The race here could be turned on its ear if Huntington were to join the Cummins and Co., but at this point it appears she's content to stay as an independent.
We've got a year to sit back and watch, which can be an eternity in politics.
