Port Metro Vancouver anticipates container traffic will double over the course of the next 10 to 15 years, and nearly triple by 2030. Wow! Could that actually happen?
Many variables affect trade between nations: population and economic growth, exchange rates, competition, treaties, taxes, consumer demand and shipping costs. PMV's expectations seem inestimable, yet plausible.
It plans to accommodate container traffic growth initially through increased efficiency and ultimately with expanded capacity. I cannot fault PMV. Port capacity impacts Canadian jobs and what we pay for imported goods.
PMV has four container ports: Deltaport, Fraser Surrey Docks as well as Centerm and Vanterm in Burrard Inlet. Each operates two berths except Deltaport, which has three.
If you view their room for expansion using Google Earth, it's a no-brainer. Centerm and Vanterm expansion would consume significant areas of urban Vancouver. Cross them off the expansion list. River depth restricts Fraser Surrey Docks to smaller ships of 11.7 m draft or less. Would we dynamite the George Massey Tunnel and deepen 34 kilometres of river to accommodate larger ships, or also cross Fraser Surrey off the list?
Why not Prince Rupert? It's new (2007) with only one berth compared to PMV's nine. It's not part of PMV and I don't know if it is seen as partner or competitor. At any rate, it doesn't figure in the PMV expansion that threatens us.
Then there's Deltaport. Other than administrative hurdles, the only expansion impediment PMV likely sees are a gaggle of Tsawwssenites waving "SAVE OUR FARMLAND" signs. This is not to belittle sign waving, but to liken it to lying down in front of the Terminal 2 steamroller. T2 will double Deltaport's capacity.
So, to avoid being flattened, or make it less painful, what should we do? Shouldn't we cease our futile obstruction of Deltaport's T2 steamroller and wiggle into the driver's seat? How about a PMV/ TFN Mayor's Summit?
TFN's interests and ours are complementary; they want port development and we don't; they need sewers, roads and other infrastructure and we have them. Aren't these ingredients of a deal?
TFN's treaty added 919 contiguous acres, including 531 acres free of ALR restrictions. They have an agreement with PMV for limited joint undertakings in support of Terminal 2 expansion, but their plan for mega-mall development seems to me a non-starter.
Retail space advertised for TFN's 550,000-square-foot mall claims 19,268 residents within a 10-minute drive. The same agency is advertising a 300,000-squarefoot mall development in Surrey with 254,283 residents within 10 minutes plus it has a SkyTrain station across the street! Richmond's mayor recently announced "an international-sized shopping centre, the likes of which are only found in Los Angeles or Shanghai!" Besides, if TFN's aspirations were somehow realized, to quote Delta council, traffic would be "insanity."
PMV is TFN's surefire development catalyst, not doubtful defectors fleeing Surrey and Richmond malls. If TFN used its land, possibly including ALR land, to satisfy PMV's needs, wouldn't that solve everybody's problems? Isn't this Delta's 80 per cent T2 solution?
